How we price Magic cards

Updated Nov 1, 2026.

The short version: within 10% of the price is fair; 10–30% over is a bit high; more than 30% over is overpriced; more than 10% under is below the usual price. That’s the whole rule. The rest of this page is what “the price” means.

One source: TCGplayer

Every number on this site comes from TCGplayer. No blended indexes, no other marketplaces, no vibes.

Market price first, cheapest listing beside it. The main number on the Top 10, Spikes, the budget deck and card pages is the TCGplayer market price, which is based on recent sales and is what our labels and grades use. Next to it we show “Cheapest right now”: the cheapest live English Near Mint listing of the same printing, with its shipping shown separately. That one can jump around hour to hour (one seller can set it) and is checked when you load the page, up to an hour old.

Three prices, three meanings

Market price (“Don’t pay more than”): TCGplayer’s market price for the printing, based on recent sales. It’s the headline number on the Top 10, card pages, the deck total and Star Trek, and it’s what our labels and grades use. Same number, two names: we call it “don’t pay more than” because paying more is a choice, not a law.
Cheapest right now: The cheapest live English Near Mint listing of the same printing on TCGplayer, with its shipping shown separately. One seller can set it, so it moves hour to hour. Checked when you load the page, up to an hour old. Handy for buying, useless for judging.
Price check verdict (/check): Your asking price against the cheapest Near Mint listing (plus shipping for cards under $5), not against market price, because that’s what you’d actually pay today. Market price is shown next to it for reference.

Card labels (Top 10, deck list, Star Trek page)

Today’s price is TCGplayer’s market price for the printing (Normal unless it says Foil). That’s the “Don’t pay more than” number.
Usual price is the median of the last 30 daily TCGplayer market prices (English, Near Mint).
Release week left out: a printing’s first 7 days are skipped, because new-card prices swing hard. The release date comes from a public card database; prices still come only from TCGplayer.
Too little history: with fewer than 10 days of usable prices, a card gets a “new” label instead of a verdict. Printings released under 45 days ago are tagged “New, still settling”.
Bands: today’s price vs that 30-day median, using the rule above.

The price checker (/check)

A different number, on purpose. Everywhere else, the headline number and the tags use TCGplayer’s market price. The checker compares your asking price to the cheapest live English Near Mint TCGplayer listing for the exact printing and finish (Normal or Foil), because that’s what you could pay instead, today.
Under $5, that listing’s shipping to the US is added before comparing. $5 and up, it’s the card price only; shipping and tax are extra.
No Near Mint listing right now? It falls back to the market price and says so.
Same bands: within 10% either way is fair, 10–30% over is a bit high, more than 30% over is overpriced, more than 10% under is below the cheapest listing.
TCGplayer’s market price is shown next to it for reference, plus its 30-day trend.
The 30-day chart uses TCGplayer’s daily English Near Mint prices, so you can see whether today is near the month’s high or low.
Cheaper printing available: shown when another printing of the same card in the same finish is at least $0.50 and at least 15% cheaper (cheapest English Near Mint listing for each).
Assumes Near Mint. A played copy should cost less. The “See it on TCGplayer” link opens Near Mint listings.
Listings are cached for up to an hour, so a just-listed bargain may take a moment to show.

The Top 10

Ranked by English Near Mint copies sold on TCGplayer over the last 7 full days. Real sales, not articles or opinions.
One entry per card: its best-selling printing, so the price and chart belong to a real printing you can buy.
Candidates: TCGplayer’s best-selling Magic singles, a watch list of popular Commander cards, and last week’s list. Sealed product, tokens, art cards and basic lands are left out.
Ranks 11–20 are the “This week’s top 20” carousel.
Goes live once a week, Sunday at 12:01 AM PT. Prices and labels on it refresh during the week.
Under each card: today’s TCGplayer market price (the “Don’t pay more than” number), its label, and its usual price (the 30-day median). See Card labels.

Moving right now

The biggest 7-day TCGplayer market price moves, up and down, on cards that aren’t in the Top 10.
A card only counts if its market price is $2 or more and at least 10 Near Mint copies sold in the last 7 full days, so one odd sale can’t fake a jump. Its printing must have 45+ days of TCGplayer data, so brand-new printings are left out.
Up to 5 risers and 5 fallers, ranked by size of move, topped up to 10. The list of cards we watch is rebuilt weekly; prices are rechecked every 4 hours.
Prices are TCGplayer market price, based on recent sales, not the cheapest listing. Beside it we show the cheapest Near Mint listing right now (item price plus shipping) so you can see what you could actually pay today. The big % is the 7-day change; the label compares today’s price with its 30-day median.

Spikes of the Week

Three cards each week. Candidates are cards priced $2 or more with at least 10 Near Mint copies sold in the last 7 full days, ranked by biggest 7-day rise in TCGplayer’s daily market price (Near Mint, normal printing). A Top 10 card can be a spike.
The prices shown are the start and end of the spike week, not today’s price. Every number comes from TCGplayer price history; none are typed by hand.
We only print a reason for the move if we can back it up. “Did we call it?” is answered honestly, including “no”.

The weekly deck total

The total is each card’s TCGplayer market price (Normal printing) times how many copies the list runs, added up for the full list.
It only updates when every card in the list gets a price. If any card can’t be priced, the page keeps the last full total and its date.
Shipping and tax are not included. Tags on key cards use the same 30-day labels as the Top 10.
Rechecked every few hours, so the total can move a few cents during the week. Prices change — check before you buy.

The trade calculator (/trade)

Each card is priced at its cheapest Normal paper printing that is already out, Near Mint, checked live on TCGplayer.
Want a specific printing? Use the price checker instead.

Track record: how we grade

We save the list. When each week’s Top 10 is built, we save every card with its price and tag.
We look up today’s price. On the track record page, each saved card is looked up again on TCGplayer and its current market price goes in the “Now” column.
We show the change. A green ↓ means the card got cheaper than the saved price, a red ↑ means it got pricier, and “(same)” means no change.

Saved as “Below its usual price” and the price went up? That call looked right: buying then would have saved money.
Saved as “A bit high” or “Overpriced” and the price dropped? Waiting was the better move.
“Fair price” means the price was close to normal for the month, so small moves either way are expected.
Recap prices are TCGplayer market prices for the Normal printing. Shipping, tax and condition are not included.

Buy now or wait: how card pages decide

We compare yesterday’s TCGplayer market price (Normal, Near Mint) with its median over the last 30 days, using the same bands as the Top 10 tags, then look at the 7-day change.

Buy now: more than 10% under its 30-day usual (“Below its usual price”), and not down 10% or more this week.
Cheap, but still falling: under its usual price but down 10% or more in 7 days. Buy if you need it.
Buy if you need it: within 10% of its usual price (“Fair price”).
Wait: more than 10% over its usual price (“A bit high” or “Overpriced”). “Wait: it just jumped” if it also rose 10% or more in 7 days.

It is a price call, not a prediction. Cards that are about to be reprinted are flagged separately on the reprint watch.

Star Trek & preorder pricing

Card rows use TCGplayer’s market price (based on recent sales, not the cheapest listing), Normal (non-foil) printing.
“Listed, no sales yet” means sellers have posted the card but nobody has bought one, so there is no market price. A dash in “Don’t pay more than” means there isn’t enough data to set one yet.
Reprints with no Star Trek price yet (shock lands, Engineered Explosives and similar) use the TCGplayer market price of their cheapest older English paper printing. The list of printings comes from a public card database; the price is TCGplayer’s.
Deck values leave out basic lands. Unpriced cards are counted, not guessed. MSRP comes from Wizards of the Coast.
Sealed boxes: today’s cheapest live TCGplayer listing (price plus shipping) against a fair price, which is the TCGplayer market price on Oct 24. Buy means today’s price is no more than 5% over fair; otherwise Wait.
Prices refresh until the Nov 13, 2026 release. Preorder prices on a set nobody has opened yet move a lot.

Secret Lair: buy or skip

For each current Secret Lair drop we take Wizards’ price (non-foil and foil, as Wizards lists them) and the TCGplayer market price of every card inside, using the Secret Lair printing and the foil price when the drop is foil. The singles total is the sum of those market prices. When a drop has sold out at Wizards, we compare against its TCGplayer sealed market price instead.

Buy: the singles are worth at least 15% more than the price. We say by how much.
Skip, buy the singles: the drop costs about what its cards do (between 70% and 115% of the price). No real saving, so buy only the cards you want.
Skip: the singles are worth under 70% of the price. You are paying for the art and the box.

Cards with no TCGplayer market price are listed by name and left out of the total, never guessed. Random bonus cards are not counted. Drops that Wizards has announced but whose cards have no sales yet get no verdict. Drops still on preorder get “No call until it ships”: before cards reach players, TCGplayer prices are guesses. Drops are listed newest release first. Same idea as the precon call (“Buy the deck” or “Buy the singles”): the market price decides, not the hype.

Price alerts

Tap “Alert me” on a card in the price checker and we email you if it drops.
Alerts are checked once a day, so they are not instant.
Setting one also signs you up for the free Sunday email. We do not sell your email.

Copies sold

The “about N sold” lines count TCGplayer marketplace sales of English Near Mint copies of the printing shown over the last 7 full days (today left out). Other conditions, languages and stores aren’t counted, so real totals are higher.

When numbers update

Site prices refresh four times a day. The checker looks prices up live when you search. Prices move fast, so check the live price before you buy, and add shipping and condition to the math.

Price information, not financial advice. Questions: contact@manamarketwatch.com · FAQ · Check a price